Wine’s Losing Battle: Why Other Beverages Are Taking Its Drinkers

Plus, ProWein’s makeover, what Jefferies thinks is really driving the alcohol slump, and how one limoncello spritz sparked a million-bottle craze.

It’s been a big few weeks of travel, starting with the ProWein re-launch in Düsseldorf, followed by Wine2Wine in Chicago.

Below you’ll find:

1. The latest US trade survey from Wine Opinions, presented at Wine2Wine

2. Another view that includes Europe

3. An account of the ProWein launch

4. The limoncello spritz that’s spawned dozens of imitators

John Gillespie, Wine Opinions, with moderator Ryan Goydos

Wine In the US Is Losing Drinkers to Beer, Spirits, and THC

Wine sales in the US have fallen to 2011 levels — and younger drinkers are turning to beer, spirits, and even THC drinks instead. That was the stark message from Wine Opinions founder John Gillespie at last week’s Wine2Wine Chicago.

“We’re now selling as much wine in this country as we did in 2011,” he began. “That’s not progress.”

Wine Opinions’ latest trade panel survey revealed that 53% of distributors, retailers, and on-premise operators reported declining sales this year — proof the slump isn’t over. Among 21-39 year-olds, beer dominates, spirits come second, and wine lags badly.

Wine Opinions also surveyed 1,215 regular drinkers between the ages of 21-39, to uncover their attitudes towards wine, beer and spirits. Those results were pretty grim news for the wine trade, too.

“Many more of them were drinking beer than spirits — and more of them were drinking spirits than wine,” said Gillespie. “In fact, among the wine drinkers, more than 30% drank wine either infrequently or not at all.”

Beer skews heavily to males and those in their 30s; both wine and spirits skew female; and spirits skew to those in their 20s.

“Wine was basically equally divided between those in their 20s and those in their 30s,” he went on.

Those drinkers who said they drank wine at least sometimes are now drinking less wine than in the past. Some because they prefer spirits, but many also say “the price of the wines I like has gotten too high”.

Gillespie added that it’s also true that many drinkers are cutting back on overall alcohol consumption and mentioned the Gallup poll that found 53% of American consumers believe that even moderate consumption of alcohol is bad for health. “We talk about headwinds and tailwinds. You want a headwind? There you go.”

He believes that while RTDs are “taking share from beer and wine and spirits,” they’re mainly affecting wine.

Not only that, but there’s been a 77% net increase in sales of THC-based RTDs.

“This brings me to one of the points I’d like to make,” said Gillespie. “We are members of the beverage industry, and we’ve always thought that the three obvious choices are beer, wine and spirits. It’s really simple. But maybe we should be thinking that we’re in the adult beverage industry, because that includes THC-based RTDs.”

Finally, he said that members of the August Wine Opinions trade panel had been asked to write open-ended comments on whether they believed consumers were cutting back because of rising prices.

“First of all, they agreed with consumers that wine prices have gotten too high,” he said. Second, they also believe that wine prices are driving consumers to other adult beverages. “And, thirdly, that wine prices are barriers for younger consumers.”

The panel was also asked to comment on barriers to entry for young people. Responses included premiumisation locking out new consumers; too much poorly made wine in the under-$15 category and, finally, too little very good wine in the under-$20 category.

(This is exactly what contributor Jeff Siegel said on the Drinks Insider podcast back in February — it’s worth listening to.)

Disclosure: My travel and accommodation in Chicago were covered by the Italian Trade Agency.

A View That Embraces Europe

Just a quick note: earlier this week I did a presentation on health and wellness trends to Jefferies Group, the banking and financial services company. Their own beverage analysis has concluded that the main driver of the fall in alcohol consumption is the cost of living, and this is as true in European markets as in the US.

(They have identified 27 causes of the drop in alcohol consumption, and health and wellness trends are up there, but are not as significant as the cost squeeze.)

How ProWein Plans to Keep the World’s Wine Trade Coming

At the end of September, about 40 international journalists gathered in Düsseldorf for the launch of ProWein’s new branding and programming.

The venue was cool, being the kind of edgy nightclub and bar that Germans are famous for, with giant mirror balls hanging from the ceilings.

The event began with a motivational speech from a top athlete, followed by dancers doing a routine in ProWein t-shirts. For the finale, fireworks flowed off the pipes running round the room.

It was a rare moment of flash from the famously efficient trade fair — but soon enough, the ProWein team got back to business.

ProWein already releases the annual ProWein Business Report, a highly regarded work of global market intelligence, and it intends to offer even more insights.

Marius Berlemann, the charismatic Chief Operating Office of Messe Düsseldorf, announced the launch of a new forum, Agora, which will feature 12 hours of talks over the three days of the fair.

ProWein also plans to boost its offerings for buyers, from a new matchmaking tool to an improved concierge service, and even a transport service to buyers in a 350km radius who might otherwise skip the trade fair. There will also be more emphasis on spirits.

Showcasing Düsseldorf

The reason for all this, of course, is that ProWein is under pressure from Wine Paris, which is finding it easy to attract exhibitors simply because it’s, well, Paris. The show itself isn’t as well organised as ProWein or as easy to navigate, and it’s still very French in outlook. But the city of Düsseldorf hasn’t made itself more attractive by hiking hotel rates into the stratosphere during the fair; Paris hotels don’t care about an event happening out at the Porte de Versailles and simply offer the normal off-peak rate.

Even in these straitened times, there are still plenty of wine professionals telling their bosses with a straight face that they simply must book a ticket to Wine Paris for the sake of business.

Ironically, Düsseldorf is a city worth visiting. Its proximity to Germany’s industrial heartland made it prosperous and by the 1950s it was Germany’s wealthiest city. It used that wealth to position itself as a centre of arts and culture, which in turn attracted the advertising and fashion industries, making it one of the most creatively influential cities in Europe.

It’s got exceptional art galleries and concert halls and, down by the waterfront, buildings by Frank Gehry. As far as I can tell, very few people who visit ProWein know about this, and maybe the fair should make a bigger deal about the city itself.

Disclosure: ProWein comped a train ticket, an overnight stay in a hotel with great wifi, and dinner in the revolving restaurant overlooking the Rhine. If you would like to wine and dine me: felicity@drinksinsider.com

Drinks Insider Ethics Policy: Hospitality welcome, cash even better.

Rod Micallef, Zonzo Estate

What Happens When Life Doesn’t Hand You Lemons?

Rod Micallef was making limoncello when he suddenly wondered how hard it would be to create a limoncello/Prosecco spritzer.

He released the result, Zoncello, in 2023 and by the end of the year, it had sold a million bottles in Australian retail — and inspired a flood of imitators, both in Australia and overseas.

But the story of Zoncello’s success has been a bumpy one. For a start, the Australian Taxation Office insisted on creating a whole new tax category for the spirits/wine mix (they landed on “vegetable wine”). And then Micallef’s suppliers ran out of lemons.

Rod from Zonzo Estate in the Yarra Valley is the subject of this week’s episode of Drinks Insider.

The interview was recorded in an Australian bedroom with dodgy wifi, so there’s one little glitch that even my genius producer Gideon from Katalyst Music couldn’t fix. Apart from that, it’s one of the funniest stories ever told on the podcast and offers great insights into entrepreneurial thinking and problem solving.

And you can find it here and here and here!

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