What Happens to Alcohol Sales When Millions Lose Their Appetite?
It's time for another instalment of Friday Drinks!
The patent that threatens the beverage market, pub culture melting down, and the IQ tax. These are the stories that caught my eye this week.
The Patent That Could Rewrite the Future
The spread of GLP-1 drugs is already reshaping restaurant culture in places like New York, where “miniature menus” are appearing.
Imagine that on a global scale.
GLP-1 patents expire in some jurisdictions early next year, and factories are gearing up to manufacture cheap generics. It won’t happen instantly, because delivery pens take longer to develop, but the rollout is coming.
The countries involved are India, China, Brazil, and Mexico.
Mexico, of course, borders the US. Considering that Ozempic currently costs up to $1,000 a month in the USA, you can just imagine the stream of cars heading to Tijuana.
(Patents also expire in Canada, but their regulatory process is glacial.)
As for the UK, Europe, and the US, the patents expire in the early 2030s.
Of course, the GLP-1s might fall out of favour within a decade. Even now, only 40% of users are still on the drug 12 months later.
But it’s also possible that drinking occasions will contract and volume strategies will become unsustainable. The industry cannot afford to wait and see.
It’s long past time to start thinking about new formats.
The Age Twist in Heavy Drinking Risk
What are the signs that someone might develop an alcohol problem? A new Australian study tracked more than 9,000 people over ten years and discovered it depends on age:
Younger adults (<36)
Frequency of drinking is the strongest predictor of future consumption.Older adults (50+)
Quantity per occasion is the stronger predictor.Middle-aged (25–49)
Results are mixed, with no clear winner.
For younger adults, how often they drink is a clearer warning sign; for older adults, it’s how much they drink on each occasion.
In other words, consumption patterns mean different things at different ages.
British Pubs Erupt Over Terrible New Trend
There’s a revolution brewing in British pubs. Signs are going up. Publicans are taking a stand. Social media is awash with complaints.
And it’s all because people are queuing for drinks.
The emergence of orderly lines at the bar has made people so angry that the situation has even spawned its own X account.
Normally, Brits queue for everything. Buses, cash machines, supermarkets, coffee. With one exception.
In pubs, you just go to the bar and find a space. But people have taken to forming lines, as if the pub was a bus station.
Some blame tourists. Some think it was COVID. Either way, the distress has reached such a level that the Wall Street Journal wrote about it.
Honestly? Please send those neat little lines to continental Europe. In Germany, there’s no queuing at all. People hover vaguely, or maybe stand parallel to the counter, or drift in loose clumps. No matter where you stand, someone assumes you’re pushing in.
I come from a culture where queuing is a sign you’re a moral being, and my pulse spikes every time the café is crowded.
What’s even worse is when a sort-of line has formed and some person decides their spot is too comfortable to relinquish, regardless of the traffic jam building up behind them.
In Australia recently, I saw a coffee queue so elegant and mathematical that I had to document it for my German friends. They admired the line, but said, “That will never work here.”
Well, it is working in Britain. And, of course, everybody hates it.
The Phrase That Explains Luxury Wine Better Than Any Expert
And speaking of Wall Street Journal reporting, they’ve also discovered that Chinese consumers have a pithy phrase for buying “a premium-priced brand even though an equally good and cheaper product is available.”
They call it the IQ tax.
I’m sure we can all think of some very famous and expensive wine brands that attract the IQ tax. It’s a crowded field.
Brussels Nightlife Is Crossing a Line
According to Brussels Mayor Philippe Close, it’s now cheaper to buy cocaine than to indulge in rum and Coke. Drug labs are flourishing, and white powder is everywhere. As are shootings — there have been 60 so far in Brussels this year.
Wastewater analysis shows Brussels and Antwerp are in Europe’s top five for drug consumption, which might go some way to explain those all-nighters in the EU Parliament.
This must be having an impact on the drinks market. If you know any Belgian drinks professionals, send them my way. Drinks Insider wants to know more.
I have such mixed feelings about GLP-1 drugs, on the one hand if it helps people that’s fine but on the other I don’t like that we solve all problems with pills now. I worry we are becoming a global monoculture of health neurotics driven by overbearing public health and silly social media trends…but also maybe it’s just a phase because we are not yet far removed from the COVID pandemic and the tide will go out soon and things will revert to some type of normal. There seem to be some early indicators of this and you allude to the fact that GLP-1 use does seem to fall off.